Ezra has a theory on why John Roberts was selected rather then a Hispanic or a woman. A comment that has at the end of the post however is something that caught my attention and that I must disagree with,
This business/Christian Right thing is actually an important cleavage to think about, not because they're going to split anytime soon, but because the rise of the theocrats has really taken the spotlight off the plutocrats.
I have to disagree with the idea that this rift is not going to cause problems for the Republicans. In fact, I believe that this will likely be the biggest issue for Republicans in the 2008 primaries. The GOP has gotten lucky that President Bush is the kind of candidate that can be a balancing force between the two camps. He has managed to pass legislation that has more or less appeased both factions of the Republican Party. Finding another candidate with this ability seems rather unlikely.
Looking at some of the front runners for the 2008 nomination, McCain, Giuliani Rudy, Rice, Frist, only Frist would have a chance to get strong support for both camps-and his business credentials are great. The religious Right is likely to strongly oppose McCain and Giuliani because of the uncertainness of McCain, the pro-abortion stance of Giuliani and the fact that Rice isn’t married. All however would likely receive strong support from the pro-business camp.
I firmly believe that 2008 will be a difficult primary for the Republicans. It is likely determine which side of the party is the dominant force within the GOP for many years to come. If such a rift does occur, it will be up to the Democrats to capitalize on it.
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