Ezra has a theory
on why John Roberts was selected rather then a Hispanic or a woman. A
comment that has at the end of the post however is something that caught my
attention and that I must disagree with,
This
business/Christian Right thing is actually an important cleavage to think
about, not because they're going to split anytime soon, but because the rise of
the theocrats has really taken the spotlight off the plutocrats.
I have to disagree with the idea
that this rift is not going to cause problems for the Republicans. In fact, I believe that this will likely be
the biggest issue for Republicans in the 2008 primaries. The GOP has gotten lucky that President Bush
is the kind of candidate that can be a balancing force between the two
camps. He has managed to pass
legislation that has more or less appeased both factions of the Republican Party. Finding another candidate with this ability
seems rather unlikely.
Looking at some of the front
runners for the 2008 nomination, McCain, Giuliani Rudy, Rice, Frist, only Frist
would have a chance to get strong support for both camps-and his business credentials
are great. The religious Right is likely
to strongly oppose McCain and Giuliani because of the uncertainness of McCain,
the pro-abortion stance of Giuliani and the fact that Rice isn’t married. All however would likely receive strong
support from the pro-business camp.
I firmly believe that 2008 will
be a difficult primary for the Republicans. It is likely determine which side of the party is the dominant force
within the GOP for many years to come. If
such a rift does occur, it will be up to the Democrats to capitalize on it.